In his keynote speech at the 2008 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Bill Gates talked about what he called the commercial success of Windows Vista. “I’m pleased to say that we’ve got over 100 million people using Vista now, and that’s a very significant milestone,” he said.

Many commentators regard that figure as disappointing, however. One forecast speculated that 270m units would be sold during 2007. Microsoft’s numbers may lag the market, since the vitally important Christmas selling season is barely over. Microsoft officials have pointed out that it’s difficult to know how many units of Vista are in use in large corporations since the licenses they buy allow them to deploy either Vista or XP.

In addition, the shipping of Vista’s Service Pack 1 (SP1) later this quarter should shake the market into action.

Richard Shim, research manager at analysis firm IDC, said, “Vista has received a lukewarm response because Microsoft hasn’t made a good case for upgrading”.

Another commented, “Office 2007 only takes marginal advantage of Vista. The impact of Vista is still alive,” he added. “It’s not as influential as it was, but I wouldn’t call it a failure”.

Robert X. Cringely, the veteran technology writer over at PBS, recently forecast that “Microsoft will indefinitely extend the life of Windows XP, acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista, which will require another generation of hardware (and another $5 billion in R and D) to finally look good three years from now.”