The now notorious delay in delivering consumer versions of Windows Vista won’t materially depress PC sales once the trend slowdown is taken into account, says IDG.

Loren Loverde, Director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, said in a statement: “Some consumers will certainly delay PC purchases until Vista is available, but we expect the delay to shift only moderate volume from the fourth quarter of 2006 into 2007 and will not cause a loss of sales.”

The Vista delay probably will, however, drive up marketing costs for Microsoft and for PC makers this year, as they try to attract consumers and adjust to the new schedule, IDC said.

IDC’s Vista predictions may provide some comfort for PC makers amid a generally tempered outlook. While PC sales have grown around 15 percent over the last two years, IDC predicts growth to slow to 10.5 percent this year in most regions. In 2007, growth will nudge slightly higher to 10.7 percent, with 254 million PCs shipped, at a value of US$232 billion, IDC said. … It still regarded the figures as “relatively strong.” The company had expected a sharper decline in growth, but indications show commercial spending will rise in 2007 prompted in part by interest in Vista.

[Source: TechWorld.com]

The New York Times reports that HP (Hewlett Packard) requested the delay in consumer versions of Windows Vista. As the number two manufacturer of PCs in the U.S., HP felt pushed to roll out its machines in time for Christmas.

This information apparently came from an anonymous source citing another anonymous source. HP seemingly told its close partner, Microsoft, that it needed the code by August at the latest if it was to guarantee holiday-season shipment. As the delivery to OEMs had slipped significantly, this story has legs ,despite its dubious provenance. No doubt that’s why the NYT ran it.

TG Daily reports: “A spokesperson for Hewlett-Packard late this afternoon acknowledged that HP communicated with Microsoft on the subject of Vista’s release, but would not say whether the company tried to influence Microsoft’s itinerary. “As we have a very close working relationship with Microsoft,” the spokesperson wrote, “HP certainly shared its preferences, but Microsoft determined their own launch strategy.” Only Microsoft would know what factors truly led to its decision, the spokesperson said, though HP stated it made no “ultimatums” to Microsoft.”

I suppose it all comes down to which anonymous source for this story you believe.

Windows Vista will not now be released to consumers until January 2007, along with Office 2007, which appears to be having the same spasms of developmental longevity. So what is the truth about the 60-percent rewrite proposition that’s been buzzing the Internet all weekend?

Phil Sim gives us the lowdown on David Richards, the originator of the story in Smarthouse, the magazine he owns.

Robert Cringely of PBS gives us a dark glimpse of Redmond office politics and psychology. If any of it is true, it’s no wonder they’ve got problems.

The real crunch here, we believe, is that with Jim Allchin in the retirement anteroom, and Gates already in Elder Statesman mode, there’s no single coherent technical voice driving the core of the project. They simply can’t make up their minds about the central issues.

A whirl of charge and counter-charge, rumor and innuendo, the usual shifting sands of a large project under pressure, are knocking the operation off-track time and again.

But let’s be clear, January 2007 is only the CES presentation and the release to OEMs (equipment manufacturers). It’ll take some months for the actual preinstalled boxes to make it to the high street. That probably means April/May 2007 at best.

And have you noticed that System Pack 3 for Windows XP has been promised for Christmas 2006? Had they anticipated this delay when that was announced? But we mustn’t add to the speculation.

And what of IE7 for XP? We’re going to need that now.

David Richards, writing for Australian website Smarthouse, reiterates today his previous contention that Windows Vista is having up to 60 percent of its code rewritten. Here’s the passage:

“Mr Raymond Vardanega, the Marketing Director, of Acer Australia has confirmed independently of SmartHouse Magazine that Microsoft is having major problems with its Vista operating system. He said ‘The decision to delay Vista into the consumer market will have an impact on hardware sales particularly in the Media Centre market. We have been told that Microsoft has bought in programmers from the Xbox team to work on the problems. We have also been told that up to 60% of the code will have some form of re writing or changes made. We are told that Microsoft is concerned at the impact that the delay will have on hardware manufacturers. We have raised our concerns directly with Microsoft.’ ”

Microsoft tech evangelist Robert Scoble commented on this blog that the reorg is true but the rewrite is not. But Microsoft has not rebutted this story officially, and Richards is claiming that a Redmond partner, Acer, albeit the Australian office, is maintaining it’s true.

Come on, Microsoft, tell us what’s going on here. Is it true or is Scoble being set up as a turkey to play for time while Redmond decides how to handle this story? Either way, it’s bad for the company.

Update: Scoble says, Can this week ever end?